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巴菲特的年终总结-享受快乐与健康

今天在网上看到了巴菲特的年终总结，很有感触，学习并且记录一下。兼且学习一下英文版本。

1.伯克希尔公司的2007年
2007年我们的净资本增长为123亿美元，在过去的43年里，我们的股票价格从19美元增长到了78008美元，年复合增长率为21.1％。

Our gain in net worth during 2007 was $12.3 billion, which increased the per-share book value of both our Class A and Class B stock by 11%. Over the last 43 years (that is, since present management took over) book value has grown from $19 to $78,008, a rate of 21.1% compounded annually.*

2.次债危机 金融机构惨不忍睹
你可能记得2003年的时候，硅谷很流行一个车贴："神啊，救救我吧，再给一个泡沫吧。"很不幸，这个愿望很快就成真了：几乎每个美国人都认为房价会永远上涨。这种看法令贷款机构无视买房人的实际经济状况随意放贷，认为房价的上涨会解决一切问题。而今天，美国正为此付出惨痛的代价。

　　随着房价的下跌，大量愚不可及的错误被曝光了。只有在退潮的时候，你才能看出哪些人不穿裤子就下水了。对于美国最大的一些金融机构，我只能用"惨不忍睹"来形容了

You may recall a 2003 Silicon Valley bumper sticker that implored, "Please, God, Just One More Bubble." Unfortunately, this wish was promptly granted, as just about all Americans came to believe that house prices would forever rise. That conviction made a borrower's income and cash equity seem unimportant to lenders, who shoveled out money, confident that HPA - house price appreciation - would cure all problems. Today, our country is experiencing widespread pain because of that erroneous belief.

As house prices fall, a huge amount of financial folly is being exposed. You only learn who has been swimming naked when the tide goes out - and what we are witnessing at some of our largest financial institutions is an ugly sight.

3.投资中石油 近40倍获利
去年，我们做了一笔非常大的卖出。2002年和2003年，伯克希尔以4.88亿美元购入中国石油1.3%的股份。按这个价格计算，中国石油的市值为370亿美元。而我那时判断，这个公司的价值应该为1000亿美元。2007年，两个因素增加了它的价值：国际原油期货价格的急剧攀升，与此同时，中国石油的管理层在建立石油和天然气储备方面又做了大量的工作。这些使中国石油的市值一下子飞升到了2750亿美元。我们认为，这个估值水平和其他大型石油公司相当，所以我们将手中的股票以40亿美元全部卖出。

　　另外，由于出售中石油带来了投资收益，我们支付了12亿美元的税。这个金额相当于整个美国政府运作4个小时的所有支出，包括国防、社会保障等等。

We made one large sale last year. In 2002 and 2003 Berkshire bought 1.3% of PetroChina for $488 million, a price that valued the entire business at about $37 billion. Charlie and I then felt that the company was worth about $100 billion. By 2007, two factors had materially increased its value: the price of oil had climbed significantly, and PetroChina's management had done a great job in building oil and gas reserves. In the second half of last year, the market value of the company rose to $275 billion, about what we thought it was worth compared to other giant oil companies. So we sold our holdings for $4 billion.

A footnote: We paid the IRS tax of $1.2 billion on our PetroChina gain. This sum paid all costs of the U.S. government - defense, social security, you name it - for about four hours.

4.股市 不要寄托过高希望
让我们通过数字来看，两年前我也曾经提及过：在过去的20世纪中，道琼斯工业指数从66点上升至11497点。这个成果似乎很大，年复合增长率为 5.3％。一个投资道琼斯工业指数的投资者，在不同的时期收益会不同，但最后的几年却只有2％的年复合增长率，那是一个多么好的世纪啊。

　　但再看看我们这个世纪。几乎没有投资者再能获得5.3％的增长率了。道琼斯工业指数最近降到了13000点之下，如果想以5.3％的增长率发展，那么在 2099年它需要达到200万点，我们刚刚步入这个世纪八年，这意味着我们未来还有198.8万点的路需要走。虽说什么都有可能，但真的有人相信这样的事能发生吗？

How realistic is this expectation? Let's revisit some data I mentioned two years ago: During the 20th Century, the Dow advanced from 66 to 11,497. This gain, though it appears huge, shrinks to 5.3% when compounded annually. An investor who owned the Dow throughout the century would also have received generous dividends for much of the period, but only about 2% or so in the final years. It was a wonderful century.

Think now about this century. For investors to merely match that 5.3% market-value gain, the Dow - recently below 13,000 - would need to close at about 2,000,000 on December 31, 2099. We are now eight years into this century, and we have racked up less than 2,000 of the 1,988,000 Dow points the market needed to travel in this hundred years to equal the 5.3% of the last.

5.享受快乐与健康
eygle注：这是我最喜欢的一个段落：
我和我的好搭档查理今年一个84岁，一个77岁，我们都非常幸运地超越了我们的梦想。我们都出生在美国，有非常了不起的父母，能给我们提供良好的教育。我们享受着快乐的家庭和良好的健康。由于我们具备一些所谓"商业基因"，因此获得了与自己的贡献不成比例的巨大财富。另外，我们一直都热爱自己的工作，也得到了许多有才华、有激情的人的帮助。对我们来说，每天都是让人兴奋的，每天早晨我们都是踩着舞步去上班，但最快乐的事莫过于我们聚在伯克希尔的办公室里与股东们一起开会了。所以，加入我们5月3日即将举行的股东年会吧，我们那里见。

At 84 and 77, Charlie and I remain lucky beyond our dreams. We were born in America; had terrific parents who saw that we got good educations; have enjoyed wonderful families and great health; and came equipped with a "business" gene that allows us to prosper in a manner hugely disproportionate to that experienced by many people who contribute as much or more to our society's well-being. Moreover, we have long had jobs that we love, in which we are helped in countless ways by talented and cheerful associates. Every day is exciting to us; no wonder we tap-dance to work. But nothing is more fun for us than getting together with our shareholder-partners at Berkshire's annual meeting. So join us on May 3rd at the Qwest for our annual Woodstock for Capitalists. We'll see you there.

英文版参考：
http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/berkshire2007.pdf
中文版参考:
http://www.eygle.com/digest/2008/03/buffett_08.html

-The End-

By eygle on 2008-03-09 15:31 | Comments (1) | Life | 1832 |

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